On the eve of election '08

I'm going to stick my neck out and make a few predictions:

1. It's going to be closer than people have been saying.

2. The polls will have exaggerated things.

3. There will be massive logistical problems

(wow, cheerful stuff eh?)

and....

4. Obama will win

The last one is wishful thinking, not much more. I'm not at all one to be complacent about these polls etc- I don't trust them at all and they have been wrong so far. I think complacency opposed by zeal is the thing to be scared tomorrow.

So till we know for sure...I guess there's nothing to do but to hope for the best and vote for the best.

Is it wrong that I am more nervous about this election than any other one before this? This is just so important and historic and will impact all of us. I have to laugh at the thought that I'm turning into one of those fledgling NRI's who Jhumpa Lahiri writes about- in the Namesake she has this great line about how Indians in the US debate US politics with such passion and heat, even though they will never vote (I'm not doing it justice at all, but even as I read it in India, I knew exactly what she was talking about and now I am totally living that cliche... but it has just been such a ride. And I do political science, so this is my life...

This brings me to a huge, compelling question: what in the world am I going to do once this election is over? So much of the last few months, certainly weeks has been wrapped up in talking about, reading, thinking about and yes, writing about election '08. Now I'm going to have to find something to do.....hmm, perhaps my work?

It's going to be a big day tomorrow- we're having an election party in the department. What better way to watch the elections than with a bunch of liberal political scientists? I remember how crushing the same party was in 2004, hopefully tomorrow the US will elect Barack Obama...and this chapter will end differently and happily, for now at least.

Fingers crossed.

Reason No. 436030

For your reading pleasure, John Mayer's post on Huffington Post on Obama and why hope is not a buzz word....

I won't post the whole thing here but I here is a snippet I particularly like:

That's why hope is a worthwhile commodity. To those who question whether hope is a tangible product worth building a campaign around, I'd say take a look at despair and how powerful that has been in reshaping how people think and live.

Talented, funny, smart, a good writer, and yes hot.. and supporting Obama. ....what, pray, is not to like?

Joe the plumber

...just spoke on ABC. Looks like a McCain voter to me from the way he talked. Sigh.

Flushing hopes. Down the drain. Needs his pipes tightened. Full of holes.

So many jokes could be made but so little will....

Update: He's not a registered plumber, and his name is not Joe. Does anyone connected to an election ever tell the truth?

Live blogging Debate 3

Debate No. 3, the final one for Election 08 is about to start...

9:04 So they're going to be sitting down around tables (Meet the Press style) instead of at podiums which apparently will make it harder for them to be adversarial. Interesting...they should also be more familiar with this format as essentially every talk show does the same thing.
This also means McCain actually has to look at Obama tonight...

9: 05 Already I like the format a lot better- 9 minute segments with opportunity for discussion and rebuttals and Bob Scheiffer will intervene.

9: 13 "Joe the plumber"- a typical American narrative if there ever was one...

9: 20 Bob Scheiffer is not letting either candidate get away with not being specific- good for you, Bob! As a result these are some of the most clear answers they have given on the economy. They also have the time to speak without some OCD moderator (Brokaw, I'm talking to you) interrupt every 30 seconds).
Edited 9: 59 He also puts his foot down and moves topics along. I'm a new Bob Scheiffer fan.

9: 24 "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run a long time ago" GENUINELY good line, John. The rest of the answer waffled off but that was the first direct refutation of that Obama campaign point and it worked for me...(a pig with wings just walked by my room)

McCain is actually more effective when he talks directly to Obama- interesting. Obama is not as good- because he tries to be fair.

9: 28 Wow!!! Money question: about the nastiness of campaign "Are each of you willing to say to each others face what you've been saying in the campaigns"

McCain sounds hurt and sad but doesn't go for the jugular with bringing up Aiyers etc.- which he was widely touted to do. So being face to face does make it harder to lie or be vicious...blogosphere comments take note!
Edited at 9: 38 Whoa!!! Comes up with Ayers, Acorn etc.- McCain suddenly seemed to wake up and remember he was told by his henchmen to bring this up...

P.S. He totally went there- by my drinking game, you should be smashed like a pumpkin...

Obama: could have been a lot tougher on this- he should have also listed the racist, threatening stuff that has been said about him. Could have been a LOT tougher.

9: 34 YES! good-when provoked by McCain, he mentions the 'kill him' comment. Good- that needed to be stated.

News flash John, running attacks against your policy platform is NOT negative advertising. Shouting 'kill him', 'terrorist' etc. IS. Clear?

John McCain says he is proud of the people that come to McCain/Palin ralies. If he is proud of this and this , then I rest my case about why McCain would be an unmitigated disaster....There's plenty more of those where these two videos came from.

9: 43 These questions rock! Finally someone asks about VP choices. Tricky but needed to be asked.
Obama plays it safe, Biden is great etc. Poor guy, he can't tell the truth 'she's incompetent and scarily dumb'. I'm saying it for you Barack.

No Obama don't call her capable...you should just have left it at "I think that should be left for the public to decide..."
Of course McCain does not reciprocate the politeness and calls Biden wrong. And then attacks Obama.

9: 54 More picking on Asians, but with a twist. This time the bad guys are South Korea. And the culprit? Obama.

10:00 I've realized the health care plan questions are my 'refresh drink', 'get a snack', 'use bathroom' break. It's important, of course but it puts me to sleep faster than statistics classes... See you in 5...

10: 05 I just made a joke on facebook about Joe the plumber being pretty 'flushed' (get it? get it?) with all these mentions... It is a cheesy joke, but I'm proud of it so I will shamelessly repeat it here...

10: 14 Roe v. Wade question: standard answers. Obama is convincing here-refutes McCain but there is little ground for agreement here.

10:19 Wow..last question and it is about education! Excellent! Good discussion all around.

10:31 Closing Time (like the song)
McCain goes first- fairly typical stuff- and he does mention serving for the country his whole life. Been there, heard that. I actually yawned.

Obama- fairly typical stuff- does the Bush/McCain comparison, talks about change, outlines new policies, come together etc. I yawned again.

Tepid end to a great debate.

Debate Drinking Game

Daniel Drezner has a great "protectionist drinking game" on his blog for tonight's debate. So I've come up with a national security/foreign policy one along the same lines (in academicky terms, I'm borrowing his framework to apply to a different substantive area, which may not be the most original thing to do but is perfectly legitimate).

(Yes, I'm aware that a) none of my readers will read this in time for it to work b) none of them will be drinking heavily anyway c) I only have a handful (albeit much loved) of readers but work with me, guys)

So, here is my Debate No. 3 Drinking Game :

Rules:
You get a sip for totally predictable things, a shot for something mildly predictable and you get to down the glass if something surprising happens...If you find yourself falling asleep, you get to have a shot to wake up....

Have a sip when:
1. McCain mentions that Obama will sit down without preconditions to talk with Iran
2. McCain calls himself a maverick/refers to Vietnam
3. The both simply refer to Ahmedanijad as 'vile', 'evil' (just noticed vile and evil have the same letters!)
4. McCain says the surge worked, Obama says he was wrong many times

Have a shot when
1. Obama mentions the real front is in Pakistan
2. McCain mentions Bill Ayers and accuses Obama of associating with him
3. McCain has a minor hissy fit

Have a full glass/down your drink if:
1. Either of them answer the question directly
2. Either directly condemn and acknowledge the use of torture
3. Obama argues that being a POW does not equate to having foreign policy or national security experience
4.Obama attacks Palin's lack of experience

Drink an entire bottle if:
1. McCain is polite and fair

Either way...you should get hammered (or very hydrated for my non alcohol drinking friends). Judging from the last debate, you'll need it....

Sadly, I will be sober since I don't fancy doing shots of beer or wine (which is all I have) and also since I take my duties as a debate live blogger seriously...

Score Sheet Debate 2: 'That one' won

Quickly, before the talking heads start:

Winner: I would say it was pretty even but Obama was far more focused, more clear and more of a gentleman.

Loser: Tom Brokaw, Sheesh.

Ach! the talking heads have started and David Brooks gives it (narrowly) to Obama.

Experiment: Live Blogging the First Presidential Debate

10: 38

DONE! That was tough but fun! Now lets see how I compare to the talking heads....
Edited to add: Now that I've blogged about it, I find I'm not as interested in the analysis of others immediately. Interesting.

10:35

Barack, Barack, Barack...McCain just said you had no experience and he is the most experienced politician alive. And your retort? "My father came from Kenya, which is why I have my name". ?? You just let that slide? Why?

10: 28

Chaos, interruption- Indian Parliament news flashback....before Obama politely moves on....

I spaced out and when I snapped back Obama was trying to get a word in edgewise....wha??

10:18

Wow....McCain suddenly woke up and went on a little McCain rant.... Heeeeeeerrree's Johnny.......!!!

(Obama spluttered in amazement....I nearly choked on my drink...)


10:06

Obama needs to stop saying "John is right". You only play nicely with those who play nicely with you...

Clear answer from McCain about Iran as an existential threat. Clear but scary. Brings Russia in immediately, proposes "painful" sanctions on the "lousy" Iranian government....Bush the 3rd anyone?

10:04

" I got a bracelet too?" Rise above this nonsense Barack....come on....

Oh Yawn......McCain pulls out the old bracelet story now...

10:00

BURN! Obama: "coming from you who has talked about exterminating N. Korea and sung songs about bombing Iran, I'm not sure how credible that is' (on McCain talking about Obama's willingness to attack Pak)

9:55

So far if I was grading these two I would give McCain points for sticking to the question, articulating simply and effectively and for his consistency. Avoid redundancy and repetition.

Obama A- "Pay closer attention to the question and be more clear. On the positive side: Good, complex reasoning and nuanced understanding of the issues. Also extra credit for being able to pronounce Pakistan.' Points taken/ warning for saying "We have to be able to take them out"

9: 50

Now we're talking - Iraq still remains the real issue here for these two....they both look a lot more confident here. National Security and Foreign Policy is clearly much more of a comfort zone for both of them.

9: 42

McCain just repeated that he was not chosen as Miss Congeniality (which is worth another blog post, coming soon)- which is just begging for some sort of joke about Palin.

9:35

Dominant themes:

Obama: McCain is mini-Bush, Bush the 3rd, Bush's best pal.... please don't believe their lies
McCain: Talking the talk, does not mean walking the walk, cut spending, cut spending, cut spending!
Lehrer: Focus and please answer the question directly

9: 33

I'm struck by just how remarkably better both of these candidates speak than Bush. At least this is a real debate. And both men can pronounce nuclear- hallelujah for that. They also don't smirk/ grin sheepishly

9: 30

Ah! the familiar trope of Chinese children forging ahead, a perennial favorite- and it comes from Obama.

So far McCain has had the better one liners and the better campaigning buzz words (maverick, spending) , Obama sounds a lot more detailed and focused on policy- maybe too much?

Obama laughs at McCain's jokes, McCain grins as Obama speaks....much amusement.

It's getting heated now- calling each other liars, talking directly at each other, interrupting etc. That didn't take long.

Ooohh...watch out Barak- don't antagonize small business. McCain's cracking up in the corner for some reason- he's explaining why now.

9:20

This is harder than I thought- you have to listen, reflect and type while not missing what's going on- my respect for live bloggers of random awards shows has shot up.

9:16

First good punch line of the night- goes to McCain...He's already made two jokes about his age...ok, strike that, three. If you can't beat em, join em, I guess.

Obama's using first names and McCain is refusing to warm up to that usage- it's a cold Sen. Obama....I wonder how micro-planned such strategies are...
He also looks at McCain when he talks to him and McCain stares straight ahead (and now I'm done with my imitation of FOX news body language analysts)
Edited to add at 11:00- lots of the media analysts also picked up on this. Not bad for your not-so-humble blogger...

9:10

5 minutes in and I have the same comment for Sen. Obama that I often do for my undergraduate students - answer the question, please.

9:00

We're off and in the hands of the eminently capable Jim Lehrer who gets straight to the heart of the matter- the economy. The new format allows both back and forth debating as well as follow ups by Lehrer. Let's see if it gets nasty with this format- I doubt it.

My first live blogging attempt: This will be fun not only for the experience but also to see how my immediate judgement differs from that of the talking heads and media who will analyze this tomorrow.

"Don't know whether to laugh or cry" moment

This is a conversation I had a couple of days with an ex-student of mine. She's always struck me as earnest, opinionated and very, very liberal from almost everything she said in class and outside. She's almost a stereotype in the stuff white people like mold- vaguely hippyish, vegan, back packing through Chile, artistic type who loudly denounces men, marriage, meat, Western hegemony and walmart all in one go...in other words the perfect person to have a friendly political rant with the day after the Palin speech...

Or so I thought...

The conversation made me long for a large white flag and a pole from which to wave it.

(With a little poetic license)

Me: (brightly and slightly conspiratorially) "Have you been following the political news lately?"

Student: (eagerly) "Yes, I'm sooo excited about it all"

Me: (Feeling happy about evidence of political activism in the youth) "Cool, what parts?"

Student: "Well, I think it's awesome that we have a woman running for VP. She's going to be awesome."

Me: (back peddling in my mind) "Hmmm? Interesting....so, do you find her views on the issues convincing? What things do you like about her?"

Student: "It's just really important to have women- they would change stuff, and make things better.."

Me: "Hmm....So what kind of stuff do you think she will change?"

Student: "She's going to make things.... better and she'll be great for women's rights"

Me: ('polite' voice) "Umm....Ok... Well, you do know that she's very pro-Iraq war, pro-gun, anti global warming as a concept, pro-life, anti-gay rights etc. right?"

Student: "Yeah, that's true but she's a woman and I think that's cool. We really need that right now."

Me: (smiling tightly): "Interesting....well, it's going to be.....interesting"

And then I slunk away....

It's working! Oh god, it's working!

Now I'd like to think I'm sufficiently open minded not to judge people for their political views. Some of my brightest students have been conservative in intelligent and thought provoking ways. But this is just not very smart, is it?

It bothers me that I did not try to gently disabuse her of those notions- but its hard to do without sounding condescending, patronizing and rude. No wonder the dems are bafflingly polite in the face of blatant lies.

Another day, another reminder of the 'jackass problem' in democracies, as a professor once eloquently put it.

New Yorker

everyone is agog with the new New Yorker cover page.

 Jokes about the New Yorker's cartoons are a cliche...remember the Seinfeld episode when Elaine writes a New Yorker cartoon that no one understands, because it actually has a punch line? (Seinfeld- that's a whole another post). The cartoons are funny but never obvious - there's a particular New Yorker sensibility to them. I've always been a fan but this cover has given me pause. As a friend of mine asked, ' was this really necessary?'

Not only is the cartoon really not very funny but what's more amusing is the New Yorker's convoluted explanation for it. Their belief that the cover will expose the stereotypes about the Obama's is a combination of being too clever for their own good and  being so far removed from the pulse of average American pop discourse and culture that you're left shaking your head. In today's 5 second sound byte (I'm sure it's down from 8 seconds by now), TMZ,  SMS spelling saturated enviornment, all the cover does immediately is reinforce stereotypes. Few people have the time to mull over the deep complexities and hidden meanings of the cover's purported message. Of course, those are also not the people who are likely to relax with the New Yorker but who knows? 

This will die down soon- the latest in the mini-scandalous news stories that political news seems to revolve around but you have to wonder- can Obama catch a break from the left? It's the 'liberal media' (going all O' Reilly on you now) that has really been the thorn in his side so far. With friends like these....you know how it goes.